“We anticipate that Mozambique’s real GDP will accelerate from an estimated 2.2% in 2021 to 5.3% in 2022, mainly driven by investments in physical assets, with the gas sector emerging as the main driver of investment flows in the country,” the latest analysis of the Mozambican economy reads.
In the report, sent to investors by the consultancy owned by the same owners of the Fitch Ratings agency, and to which Lusa had access, analysts point out that “despite private consumption slowing this year due to the rise in inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of consumers, the restrictions under the covid-19 pandemic continue to ease, and this will increase consumption.
For 2023, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5%, “on the back of increases in liquefied natural gas production and exports,” Fitch Solutions adds.
Looking at public finances, this consultancy forecasts that the current account deficit will improve from 21.8% of GDP in 2021, to 16.2% this year, the lowest figure in twelve years.
“We anticipate that the growth of exports of goods will outpace the growth of imports of goods, driving this remarkable improvement in the deficit,” they explain, pointing to coal, aluminum and gas as the main raw materials being exported.
In monetary policy, the Bank of Mozambique is expected to raise its key interest rate again by 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) to 15.75 percent by the end of the year.
“Inflation pressures will lead Mozambican policy makers to raise the interest rate, with strengthening economic growth allowing the central bank to maintain its interest rate at 15.75% in 2023, with slowing inflation and continued robust economic growth,” they argue.
