The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that electricity production from low-emission sources, such as wind, solar and nuclear power, will account for almost half of the world’s energy by 2026, compared to less than 40% in 2023. According to the IEA, this growth will be able to meet global energy demand over the next three years, while emissions from the energy sector continue to fall.
According to a recent report released by the IEA on Wednesday, January 24, renewable energies are expected to overtake coal by the beginning of 2025, accounting for more than a third of total electricity production. In addition, nuclear power will reach record levels worldwide, driven by the recovery of production in France, the resumption of operations of several plants in Japan and the commissioning of new reactors in markets such as China, India, Korea and Europe.
Demand for electricity is expected to grow by an average of 3.4% between 2024 and 2026, with around 85% of this growth coming from China, India and Southeast Asia. This increase represents an acceleration from the 2.2% growth recorded in 2023, according to IEA data. China will be responsible for most of this increase, even with slower economic growth and less dependence on heavy industry, as predicted in the report.
Meanwhile, global carbon emissions are expected to fall by 2.4% in 2024, with smaller reductions in 2025 and 2026, according to the IEA. The report highlights that this decoupling between global electricity demand and emissions is significant, especially with the growing electrification of the energy sector, driven by the increased use of technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Although electricity already accounts for more than 20% of final energy consumption compared to 2015 levels, the IEA stresses that achieving climate goals will require a significant acceleration of electrification in the coming years.
