The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warns that there will be growth in global oil demand this year, estimating an increase of 2.2% over the previous year. Based on an optimistic expectation about the development of the world economy, OPEC predicts that world oil consumption will reach an average of 104.46 million barrels per day in 2024, an increase of 2.5 million or 2.2% compared to 2023.
According to OPEC’s monthly report, the figures remain the same as those estimated a month ago, although the organization’s experts have slightly increased their expectation of world economic growth this year, to 2.8%.
The organization is counting on growth in China, India and other Asian countries to maintain global economic dynamics, offsetting the relatively low growth rates in the industrialized OECD countries.
The prospect of positive and stable dynamics in the main economies is supported by the expectation of a sustained reduction in global inflation until 2024 and 2025. The main central banks are also expected to start reducing their interest rates in the second half of 2024, supported by a sustained easing of global inflation throughout 2024-25.
Regarding oil supplies, OPEC predicts an increase in supply from third countries this year, to 70.53 million barrels per day, a growth revised downwards from last month’s document. By 2025, supply should reach 71.93 million barrels per day, with the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway driving production growth, while Russia and Mexico will reduce their supplies.
